ARLINGTON, Texas — There are so many ways to measure effective offense in baseball.
The two teams squaring off in the National League Championship Series beginning Monday – the Dodgers and Atlanta Braves – were good at all of them.
The bottom line, scoring runs – they ranked 1-2 in baseball, just one run apart.
Hitting home runs? Only two teams in baseball hit more than 95 this season – the Dodgers (118) and Braves (103). Not coincidentally, they tied for the best slugging percentage in baseball (.482).
How ’bout OPS? The Braves were first in the majors (.832). The Dodgers were second (.821).
You want something more new age – like, wRC (weighted runs created)? Again, the Braves were first (364), the Dodgers second (349). Or wRC-plus (which tries to take into account ballpark and league factors)? The Dodgers tied for first with the Mets (122). The Braves were right behind (121).
The game inside the game? The Dodgers led MLB in average exit velocity (90.0 mph) and hard-hit percentage (43.8). The Braves were fourth (89.5 mph) and second (42.7), respectively.
For the Braves, it represents a great deal of progress since the 2018 postseason when the Dodgers dismissed them in four games, outscoring them 20-8 in their NL Division Series.
“I just think we’re more talented. We’re deeper than we were,” said Alex Anthopoulos, who spent two years in the Dodgers’ front office before he was hired as the Braves’ GM before that 2018 season. “The one thing that was eye-opening about that series with the Dodgers in 2018 was we just didn’t match them in terms of power. And in the postseason we know it’s hard to string together three, four hits in a row. The ability to slug is important. … I would say the biggest change (since 2018) is offensively – much more firepower.”
For the Dodgers, all those numbers tell a familiar story. Each season from 2016 through 2019, they have scored more runs than the year before, hit more home runs and raised the team OPS. They led the NL in those categories in 2018 and 2019, two out of three in this year’s mini-season.
But we all know how things worked out in the postseason. The offense shrank when it mattered most. In the postseason series that ended their seasons the past four years – the NLCS against the Cubs in 2016, the World Series against the Astros and Red Sox in 2017 and 2018 and last year’s first-round exit against the Nationals – the Dodgers hit .203 as a team, including .197 with runners in scoring position, and struck out nearly 10 times per game.
This year’s lineup, Dodgers manager Dave Roberts insists, is better equipped to avoid another case of October shrinkage.
“It is,” he said. “We’ve obviously had a lot of talent here in the years that I’ve been here. But I just think that in the first two series you saw what we’re capable of as far as controlling the strike zone. If you look back at postseasons in the past we haven’t done that very well. It’s just a credit to the hitting guys and the players for understanding that value.
“It’s a mental thing. It’s a buy-in for team offense. … It’s about team baseball, winning 90 feet. Everyone wants to be the hero and get the hits. But taking what the pitcher gives you and creating stress – when we’re at our best, we do that. That’s what we’ve done all throughout the lineup.”
Another number hints at the Dodgers’ hitters commitment to that. They swung at fewer pitches out of the strike zone (just 26.5 percent) than any other team this year.
“When you can trust running counts and making the opposition continue to make quality pitches, it’s stressful,” Roberts said. “And when you can do that one through nine, you have a tendency to run pitch counts up, get in the bullpen, and then get a chance for a mistake – that promotes slugging. And if not, you take your base and create more stress.
“Winning a 2-1 pitch turns into a 3-1 pitch instead of a 2-2 pitch. That’s what we’re doing a very good job of, and when we do that, I’ll take us against anyone.”
The ability to maintain the approach that has been so successful in the regular season and continue it in the postseason (against better pitching) is the challenge. So far, the Dodgers have met it.
In their first five postseason games this year, the Dodgers have scored 30 runs, batting .258 (41 for 159) with 27 walks. They haven’t relied on the home run – a necessary adjustment given the proclivities of Globe Life Field. Instead, they have hit .314 (16 for 51) with runners in scoring position.
“I think just the experience, postseason experience,” said Dodgers third baseman Justin Turner, who addressed the team before the start of the NLDS against the San Diego Padres, making points about focus and commitment. “Obviously the more and more you go through it, the more and more comfortable you are in big moments. And the depth. A lot of people talk about one through nine in our lineup. But for us, it’s really one through 13 or 14 – however many position players we have (on the roster). We trust every single guy to go up and put together a quality at-bat every single time and when you do that, that puts a lot of pressure on other teams’ pitching staffs and it really lengthens out the game for them.
“I think these guys understand the process and understand how to take a quality at-bat and understand how to work an at-bat better than they ever have. And I think you’re seeing it on a nightly basis.”
The names in the lineup have not changed much this postseason – with the very notable exception of the one at the top, Mookie Betts. His influence has been more about reinforcing the way things should be done than as a catalyst for change, according to Dodgers shortstop Corey Seager.“It’s funny – he’s obviously an extremely good player and that’s what makes him good and stuff like that,” Seager said when asked about Betts’ impact. “But he fits into this team very well. Never giving up, taking each pitch at a time, playing everything out, moving the line – that’s everything that he does that makes him good and just being flat out good. So it’s been a huge thing for us, watching a guy as talented as he is, being able to do all these different things, play the way we do – play hard, grind everything out, just go about your business.
“The best player in the world doing that, being on your team and playing how you play is just great to watch. It’s good for everybody.”
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