When the Tampa Bay Rays and New York Yankees met in Game 5 of the American League Division Series on Friday, their pitchers did something historic. They threw fastballs at an average speed of 97.2 mph, the fastest in a single game since systematic pitch tracking began in 2008 – if not ever.
As postseason games go, there are few anecdotal challengers. The Nolan Ryan-Dwight Gooden duel in Game 5 of the 1986 National League Championship Series might be the nearest. A Sandy Koufax-Jim Palmer matchup in Game 2 of the 1966 World Series could be a contender. Without accurate velocity tracking, the truth is lost to history.
Of course, Gerrit Cole and Tyler Glasnow had the luxury of training methods and technology that didn’t exist in decades past. They also had the luxury of relief pitchers, each of whom brought a relatively fresh arm and a lively fastball into the game. All seven men who pitched Friday had the added benefit of the shortest regular season in baseball history, a factor that touches every facet of every game still to be played in 2020.
In August, I wrote about the erosion of talent among major league players. The collection of stars who opted out or suffered season-ending injuries left inexperienced replacements in prominent roles. The impact was swift and conspicuous. It was reminiscent of World War II, when several of baseball’s biggest stars were forced into service, and had the potential to turn 2020 into the worst regular season since 1945.
Now, after a couple of rounds, it’s tempting to conclude this postseason might be the exact opposite: a classic, perhaps the best ever in terms of elite talent performing at or near their physical peak.
The four teams remaining were all projected by FanGraphs to reach the postseason. They include two projected division winners (the Dodgers and Astros) and the two teams projected to have the best record of any non-division winner in each league (the Rays and Braves). In theory, a 60-game regular season and a 16-team playoff field left room for a team to back its way into an LCS. Sadly, the dream of an Orioles-Pirates World Series was left unrealized.
What we have instead are the highest-seeded teams in each league, opposed by a worthy challenger. Even more critically, they are not burdened with the fatigue of a 162-game regular season – a marked difference from every postseason you’ve ever watched.
That helps explain why the Rays and Yankees were able to break a speed record Friday. We’re a couple of weeks into the third full month of the 2020 season. The third month of a normal regular season is June, and fastball velocity has a funny way of peaking around that time.
Statcast paints a consistent upward trend for fastball velocity as the baseball calendar progresses. Look at the average fastball velocity league-wide, and April is the slowest month year after year. May is usually the second slowest. The curve then flattens in June and tends to hover there until the end of August. (September is an outlier. Expanded rosters lead to bloated pitching staffs, more in-game pitching changes, and a younger group of arms, all of which can affect velocity.)
In April 2019, the average major league fastball clocked in at 92.5 mph. In May, it remained at 92.5 before jumping to 92.8 in June.
In April 2018, the average fastball registered 92.1 mph, followed by 92.5 in May, followed by 92.8 in June. Each of the last two Julys saw velocity dip to 92.7.
There are several viable theories for the fastball velocity curve looks the way it does. Maybe it’s a reflection of how long it takes a pitcher to hit his stride following the offseason. Maybe it reflects pitchers who began the season with an injury, something that hindered their velocity, shutting their season down in favor of surgery.
Whatever the reason, it’s easy to draw a parallel to 2020. Now is when pitchers should be hitting their physical peak. Maybe fastball velocity isn’t a perfect proxy for physical fitness, but if the same logic extends to hitters – the healthiest are now hitting their stride, while the unhealthiest are hitting the injured list – they should be at or near their physical peak now, too.
“There’s a little bit of external fatigue, as far as how we’ve had to go about getting through this season – a lot of things that are off the baseball field,” Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said. “If you’re looking at sheer workload and volume – and now you’re layering in winning two games in the Wild Card series, having some days off, then having to win three in a row (in the Division Series) – our guys are as fresh as they’ve been all year. I think we’re in as good a situation as we could possibly be in.”
Easy for him to say. Roberts’ club didn’t have to cope with a single coronavirus case among players during the regular season. None of the Dodgers’ rivals in the NL or AL West did, either. The Dodgers were not burdened by replacing a star after pitcher David Price opted out of the season.
For Braves manager Brian Snitker, the “external fatigue” was not as easy to dismiss. His star first baseman, Freddie Freeman, was among the infected in July, though he did not miss a regular-season game. The Miami Marlins’ team-wide coronavirus outbreak meant the Braves had to play three doubleheaders. Snitker had to cope with more uncertainty than perhaps any of the remaining managers.
“It’s felt like a whole year,” Freeman said, “but we’re OK with that.”
For Braves pitcher Max Fried, it wasn’t as simple as starting the season in July. Like most pitchers, he had to find a way to stay warm while the regular season went on hiatus, all the while coping with uncertainty around if or when the season would begin.Fried offered a revealing answer to the question of how he felt.
“Probably better than I would in another October when you go through 162 (games),” he said. “The mental grind of this year – abiding by the protocols, doing social distancing, being quarantined at home – it’s taken a different mental toll. It definitely feels like we’ve played 162.”
Therein lies something no radar gun or stopwatch can reveal. Pitches might be traveling faster than usual this October. Bats might be cutting air like it’s June. But the mind – an athlete’s most important tool – has been grinding enough for a baseball player to believe the calendar isn’t deceiving his body. If this is not the best October baseball has given us, it might be the most interesting.
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