In a dramatic move to halt the rampant spread of coronavirus, Gov. Gavin Newsom on Monday pulled a public health “emergency brake,” bumping most of California, including Orange County, back into the purple tier of the state’s pandemic tracking system, which figures to restrict many businesses just ahead of the holiday season.
The move back to purple tier marked a sudden shift in Orange County’s pandemic performance as the most recent testing data reflects a post-Halloween wave of infections.
The new rules mean restaurants, gyms, movie theaters, houses of worship and several other business sectors and public places must shut down indoor operations again by Tuesday. Similar restrictions were in place during the spring and early summer.
“Oh, joy. Back to purple,” Yorba Linda gym owner Vodak Hawkins said wryly, summing up the initial reaction of many Orange County businesses again facing the prospect of fewer walk-in customers and a climate of uncertainty.
But while the shift is a cause of near-term anxiety for many businesses, Orange County’s top health official, Dr. Clayton Chau, described it as necessary.
“I think this is the right move,” Chau said. “We have seen a skyrocketing increase in cases, so this is it. We need to do this.”
State officials also said Monday that everyone in California must wear face coverings outside their own homes – some exceptions include people who are driving alone or with household members, children under 2 years old and people with medical conditions.
California’s leadership pushed 28 counties straight into the purple tier on Monday, the level that’s set only when the virus is considered a “widespread” risk. Now, 94% of the state’s population, including all of Southern California, is under the state’s most stringent lockdown requirements.
Sharp turn
During a news conference Monday, Newsom noted that California is seeing the fastest increase in new cases since the beginning of the pandemic, and that the spread of COVID-19 is no longer concentrated in a handful of counties.
“Daily cases in the state of California have doubled just in the last 10 days,” Newsom said. “Every age group, every demographic – racial, ethnic – in every part of this state, we are seeing case rates increase and positivity rates increase as well.”
Until recently, the disease wasn’t spreading as quickly in Orange County as it was in other parts of Southern California. Last week, all of the counties that touch Orange County were in the purple tier.
But in the past week, the new case rate in Orange County lurched to 10.8 cases per day for every 100,000 residents, nearly double the previous week’s rate of 5.6 per 100,000. Overall, daily case tallies have climbed into the mid-hundreds; on Nov. 9, the county recorded 508 new COVID-19 cases, breaking 500 positive tests in a day for the first time since late July, when the county was on the tail end of the summer surge.
Testing positivity – the share of swab tests coming back positive – also rose substantially, to 4.6% from 3.3% a week earlier.
One silver lining this week was the health equity metric – measuring positive test rates among Orange County’s disproportionately impacted neighborhoods – which held steady at 5.5%.
Hospitals are ready
California Health and Human Services Secretary Dr. Mark Ghaly said the tighter rules are aimed at slowing the transmission rate and avoiding a rush of new patients in emergency rooms.
What public health officials now know about how COVID-19 cases translate into hospitalizations, Ghaly said, indicates that “cases today will end up in our hospital beds in two-to-three weeks, consistently at a rate of about 12%.”
The number of hospital patients in Orange County with COVID-19 has risen steadily, to 257 on Monday from a low of 150 about three weeks ago, though hospitalizations are still well under mid-July highs above 700.
Dr. Charles Bailey, medical director for infection prevention at two Providence hospitals, Mission Hospital in Mission Viejo and St. Joseph Hospital in Orange, said the current surge is no surprise.
“We’ve been seeing some (emergency room) increase in the cases,” Bailey said, after being “remarkably stable as a county from mid-August really through the end of October.”
It’s not clear if the winter surge will build into higher rates of new cases and hospitalizations than the rates Orange County weathered over the summer.
Bailey noted that flu season has not yet hit its stride in Orange County.
But he also said health care workers have learned a lot about COVID-19 over the course of the pandemic and are ready for the building winter wave.
“I think we have the confidence of having weathered a surge earlier, but we’re not overconfident. We still respect COVID and the possibility that we could get into another surge situation,” Bailey said.
“The plans are in place, even for the very worst case scenario.”
And, unlike earlier in the pandemic, health networks aren’t discouraging people who have other maladies from visiting doctors and making emergency room trips if needed.
Morale is strong among emergency room staff, Bailey said, and hospitals now have experience in battling a surge of new cases. That has led to new strategies and supplies – such as extra beds and ventilators – needed to keep bed capacities stable.
Though the state’s move to speed up its lockdown timetable Monday took some Orange County officials by surprise, county health officer Chau was relieved.
Chau, who heads the county’s Health Care Agency, said that the latest data led him to believe that Orange County would be moved to the purple tier on Nov. 24. But he said he hasn’t been sleeping well for two weeks because of the rising case numbers, and he was glad to hear that state officials had opted to raise the alarm and move Orange County and others to the strictest tier.
Cutting a surge short now, Chau said, could mean a faster return to the less restrictive rules. “I’m hoping (if) we do this with the state as a statewide movement, a month from now, if we have dramatic reductions … the state will allow us back to the red tier.”
He noted that the recent jump in cases in Orange County coincided with public events – Halloween and the election – that led people to relax their distancing rules.
“There isn’t any specific (business) sector that caused that … it’s due to people gathering, and there were many reasons for people to gather these past few weeks.
“I’m hoping that folks will be mindful of how this has affected us as a county, as a state and as a country that people really need to adhere to public health guidance,” he added.
In a press release Monday, Orange County leaders repeated now-routine pandemic advice, urging residents with symptoms to get tested and, generally, to stay home when possible.
Businesses, residents brace yet again
Lucy Dunn, chief executive of the Orange County Business Council, said local small businesses will bear the brunt of another round of shutdowns.
Restaurants, for example, which since September had been allowed to reopen dining rooms at one-quarter capacity in the red tier, must again move exclusively outdoors.
“We must double down on reminding folks of good health protocols and to avoid large gatherings as we enter into the holiday season. A tough ask, but with a vaccine on its way, there is a path and an end,” Dunn said.
Laguna Beach Mayor Bob Whalen said the city is going to revive a mask giveaway program.
“The Police Department has noted a drop-off in mask wearing in the city,” Whalen said. “It is clear to me that the best step we can all take at this point is to wear a mask when around others, socially distance and minimize contact with others outside of those with whom we have had regular contact. Until we have a vaccine, nothing else will control the numbers.”
Newport Beach Mayor Will O’Neill expressed his disappointment with the move to tighter restrictions. “So many businesses and restaurants have invested heavily to keep our residents safe. Sweeping closures punish these good actors.”
As news of the new rules spread, some Orange County residents lamented what they see as heavy-handed state measures. Others blamed their neighbors for not taking the pandemic seriously and flouting guidelines.
“I am tired of having to live this way nonstop because we can’t trust our neighbors to pull together and conform to suggested standards, no matter what tier color we’re in,” said Julie McCord, who lives in Anaheim.
Westminster resident Janie Celentano said she understands “wanting to keep people safe and healthy.” But she also said the state’s mandate is unnecessary, and that she would like to “be able to make these decisions for myself.”
Orange County Supervisor Lisa Bartlett, who represents the Fifth District, said the state should look at alternative solutions to tighter rules. “That strategy also clearly hasn’t worked,” she said. “This virus is not going away anytime soon, so we must continue to exercise good judgment and take precautionary measures.”
Bartlett said the state should weigh what she said have been reductions in death rates and lengths of hospital stays – and the likely arrival of a vaccine – before reverting to what she termed “heavy-handed” strategies. “I believe we can keep our communities safe without causing any further devastation to our economy.”
Rev. Mark Davis, senior pastor of St. Mark Presbyterian Church said he was disappointed, but not surprised, that the county’s health metrics have worsened so quickly.
“It’s very evident that a lot of people have not been following safety protocols,” Davis said. “We will have to pivot quickly back to virtual services.”
Students on campus
The new rules won’t hit schools immediately.
Individual schools and school districts that already have reopened won’t be forced to close classrooms again. However, those that haven’t resumed in-person learning will have to wait until the county returns to the less-restrictive red tier and stays at that level for two weeks. Elementary schools can request a waiver from the county.
Colleges and universities that reopened campuses were told they must close indoor lectures and student gatherings, although some courses, such as arts or labs for essential workers, could continue in-person. At Chapman University, students and faculty were notified Monday afternoon that as of Tuesday, Nov. 17, most classes will go resume virtually.
The campus switched back to in-person classes on Oct. 19, although some professors chose to continue their classes online.
In a note sent Friday, Chapman President Daniele Struppa advised students to finish the semester at home after Thanksgiving.
Going forward, Newsom said, pandemic tracking metrics and tier placement announcements will be made multiple times per week. When the state last enforced higher restriction rules officials were announcing tier assignments once a week, on Tuesdays.
Another change, Newsom said, is that counties can move to easier or tougher restrictions based on a week of health data. Previously, changes could happen only after two weeks of qualifying for the next tier.
But while local case rates are rising as winter holidays draw near, Chau said it’s important to remember that the virus can be tamped down if people follow health guidelines.
“We need to move together as a county,” Chau said. “We need to adhere to the public health intervention, the measures that we know work.
“I know that this is a hiccup, and we’ll get over this hiccup very quickly,” he added. “We have to give the community hope.”
Staff writers Roxana Kopetman and Jonathan Lansner contributed to this report.
https://goo.gl/hYDEHJ
No comments:
Post a Comment