Tuesday, October 27, 2020

Survey: Beyond presidential politics, Southern Californians agree on some key issues

Though they differ sharply – and predictably – on choices for president and some other political questions, a new survey shows Democrats and Republicans in Southern California agree more than they disagree on a host of other issues, including a shared concern that the upcoming election might spark violence.

On the predictable side, a survey of 956 adults in Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside and San Bernardino counties conducted by researchers at the Center for Social Innovation at UC Riverside shows the Democrat-majority region favoring former Vice President Joe Biden over President Donald Trump by 15 percentage points, 54% to 39%.  Among Democrats and Democrat-leaning voters, Biden is favored 85% to 7%, while Republican and Republican-leaning voters prefer Trump 86% to 7%.

But when asked about issues related to election security and Election Day unrest, the survey found widespread fear on both sides of the political aisle.

For example, 80% of Democrats and 82% of Republicans said they were “somewhat” or “very” concerned about the possibility that the election might spark violent protests. And on the question of “military intervention” in the election, 71% of Democrats and 65% of Republicans expressed various levels of concern. And 75% of Democrats and 74% of Republicans said they were somewhat or very concerned that state officials might manipulate the vote.

“In general, what many of the findings point to is that there are a fair number of Republicans and Democrats in Southern California who agree on the general ideas behind democracy and democratic principals,” said Karthick Ramakrishnan, a professor of public policy and political science at UC Riverside and founding director of the Center for Social Innovation.

“We asked those questions because those issues have been talked about for several months now, but people haven’t dug into the full implications of what it means,” Ramakrishnan added. “There’s been some anxiety about core values that a lot of people may have taken for granted.”

The survey, conducted from Oct. 16 to Oct. 26, with a potential error rate of 3%, found other areas of agreement, particularly on questions about how their lives have been affected by the coronavirus.

For example, 39% of Democrats and 31% of Republicans said they or someone in their family have delayed seeking medical care because of the pandemic, while 43% of Democrats and 44% of Republicans said over the past year they have cut back on food expenses to save money.

Likewise, other forms of economic hardship seem to be hitting people equally, regardless of their politics. Some 37% of Democrats and 42% of Republicans said they’ve found it tough to pay their rent or mortgage in recent months, while 36% of Democrats and 45% of Republicans said they’ve received financial help from family or friends.

Another area of agreement is education. Among parents with school-age children, the fear that pandemic-related learning programs will stunt their child’s education is widespread, with 70% of Democrats and 76% of Republicans saying they are “somewhat,” “very” or “extremely” concerned that their children might fall behind academically.

Some questions looked at how people in each of the four surveyed counties are – or aren’t – following rules aimed at slowing the spread of coronavirus.

Mask-wearing, for example, has caught on in all four counties, with 2% or fewer saying they “never” wear a mask when they go out and might encounter another person. The people most likely to wear a mask “every time” they go out live in San Bernardino County (83%), while those least likely to wear a mask “every time” live in Orange County (72%).

But if mask-wearing is now the norm, locals remain divided on whether they would accept or reject a vaccine approved by the Food and Drug Administration. In Los Angeles (63%) and Orange (57%) counties, more than half of those surveyed said they’d agree to be vaccinated. But in Riverside (47%) and San Bernardino (39%), the acceptance rates were less than 50%.

Pandemic experts say a vaccine typically needs an acceptance rate north of 70% to stop the spread of most communicable diseases, though several factors – including the efficacy of an as-yet-undeveloped coronavirus vaccine – would determine if that threshold would be valid now.

The survey also looked at how Trump’s recent brush with COVID-19 might change behavior or voting preferences. In all, 58% of all Southern California respondents are more inclined to wear a mask in public, and 39% are more likely to vote by mail, because of the president’s health battle.

The survey did find some partisan differences on issues of race. Some 78% of Democrats said they have a “very” or “somewhat” unfavorable view of White nationalist groups, while 63% of Republicans said the same.

Ramakrishnan suggested the difference might reflect recent political trends, and not necessarily deeply held beliefs.

“What’s happened over the past few years is we’ve seen a mainstreaming of hate and White nationalism. That’s why you’re seeing a higher approval level than you might otherwise expect.

“The question will be if that remains strong in the Republican party going forward.”

The survey also strayed beyond news of the moment to track how people in Southern California view some basic constitutional ideals.

Democracy, the survey found, remains popular.

In all, 82% of the respondents said it is “moderately,” “very” or “extremely” important for the maintenance of a strong democracy that news organizations remain free to report on any story, even if it isn’t popular. Some 87% said the same thing about the right to protest peacefully, while 91% said that about the importance of holding elections as scheduled.

https://goo.gl/hYDEHJ

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