The pursuit of a World Series championship, in the end, comes down to a pursuit of 27 outs on a nightly basis. For the Dodgers, who have so many other advantages throughout a talented and deep roster, right now that process at the back end of a tight game is about as clear as mud.
But there is a path, one that does not necessarily involve Kenley Jansen and his faltering velocity, movement and command.
The Dodgers and Manager Dave Roberts should be familiar with the approach. They’ve seen it, too closely, in each of the past three Octobers.
In 2017, the Houston Astros – with all of their other, um, advantages – had issues getting those final outs. Ken Giles had 34 saves in the regular season and two more early in the playoffs, but cracks were showing. And after he blew a save in Game 4 of the ALCS against the Yankees by giving up three hits, four runs, the lead and the game, Manager A.J. Hinch lost any remaining trust in him. Giles finished only one game the rest of the way, in a game his team led 7-1, while starters Lance McCullers Jr., Brad Peacock and Charlie Morton finished games for Houston en route to their celebration.
With the 2018 Red Sox, Craig Kimbrel likewise lost the faith of Manager Alex Cora during the postseason. That, as well as the 18-inning grind of Game 3, led to starters Nathan Eovaldi, David Price and Chris Sale working out of the bullpen, and it was Sale striking out the side in the ninth inning of Game 5 in Dodger Stadium that clinched that championship.
The 2019 Washington Nationals? Going into last October their bullpen seemed to have all the consistency of tissue paper, which is why Stephen Strasburg pitched in relief in the wild card game and Max Scherzer appeared in relief in Game 2 of the NLDS against the Dodgers. Daniel Hudson, who appeared in 24 games in the regular season, emerged as the closer, earned four saves, a victory and a hold in nine postseason appearances and was the guy on the mound when the World Series ended.
As we said, there is a path. It doesn’t necessarily involve Jansen, and at this point, it shouldn’t. When he pitched the ninth inning on Wednesday night against the Padres and coughed up two-thirds of a three-run lead, he threw 30 pitches to five hitters. More than half were 89 mph or less, and the movement on his cutter and the command of his stuff weren’t there, either. That, on the heels of a concerning dip of velocity during the Milwaukee series, already had Roberts pondering options.
Even before that the manager was exercising his creativity, utilizing openers toward the end of the regular season to take advantage of specific matchups before going to bulk relievers. In Thursday night’s clincher against the Padres, Dustin May started and pitched one inning – a wobbly inning, to be sure, but Roberts said afterward he’d only planned for May to pitch one. Adam Kolarek then had a disastrous second, but Julio Urias cleaned up after him – with a huge strikeout of Fernando Tatis Jr. to leave the bases loaded – and pitched into the seventh.
Ultimately, May will be a classic starting pitcher, maybe the leader of the next generation of Dodgers homegrown starters. Right now, with his triple-digit stuff and nasty sinker and cutter, he can be a multi-inning weapon as he was in Game 1, when he retired six men, struck out three and did it all in 27 pitches.
But May, Urias and Tony Gonsolin, all impressive this season, probably can’t be a part of the bullpen equation in the next series, the NL Championship Series against Atlanta beginning Monday. With no off days in that best-of-seven round, they’ll be needed to eat up innings and outs.
So what about the back end? If we can assume that Jansen will not close, Blake Treinen seems next in line. The two young guys, right-hander Brusdar Graterol and left-hander Victor González, have the stuff and might be earning enough of the manager’s trust to handle high-leverage situations. When the Dodgers acquired Graterol he seemed to be the closer of the future. The future might be approaching quickly.
Veterans Pedro Báez, Dylan Floro, Jake McGee, Kolarek and Joe Kelly are also capable of gobbling up outs and escaping jams, too, when used wisely. Báez and Floro were effective in low-stress situations in the eighth and ninth Thursday night
You might see Jansen, but likely not in the ninth or in anything close to high-leverage situations unless and until he gets straightened out. Is that even possible now? It’s one thing to work your way through a rough patch in the middle of the season, but far different to try to do so at a time of year when every out is so critical. Roberts acknowledged that during his pregame Zoom call with reporters on Thursday.
“It’s about winning baseball games and performance now,” he said. “It’s about results. And so everyone in the clubhouse understands that, and it’s my job to see that, acknowledge it, whether it’s on the position player side or the pitching side.”Kelly won a World Series ring with the Red Sox in 2018, with an 0.00 ERA while pitching in all five games against the Dodgers, and here’s what he had to say Thursday about the current L.A. bullpen:
“I’ve said it throughout the year: This is the best bullpen I’ve ever been a part of … When you could run out … pretty much every single guy down there, any park, any situation, and their numbers are from a zero ERA to a 2.00 ERA, it’s pretty damn good.”
So the pieces are there. The path is there. It will just require creativity and good decisions from Roberts.
And as any Dodger fan will tell you without hesitation, that could be just as much of an X-factor.
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